Flops You Want - Part I: 96 suited

In Sklansky's original 1976 book Hold 'Em Poker (FlopTurnRiver reviews), he has a short series of charts on "flops you want." For example, if you're holding JJ, you'd like a flop like AJ4 because it delivers some action from players with aces, while offering almost no possibility of losing to a draw. Occasionally the flops you want are a bit less obvious; it you're holding pocket aces, you may not want a flop like AJ4 since there's little chance of getting action except maybe from AJ or AK.

After playing quite a bit recently, I'm trying to think through the details of "flops you want" with the medium hands. I'm starting, for no particular reason, with 96 suited, a hand I like for some reason.

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Best case scenario: flopped full house. There are of course two possible full houses you can flop, 966 or 996. The first form, with two sixes, is much more desirable than the second. Of course, a flopped full house is great no matter what, but you have to consider what the other players could be holding.

Suppose the turn card is an ace. If the flop was 996, you have to consider the possibility that your opponent holds A9. In fact, any overcard is dangerous when you have the lower end of the full house. Consider the hands with a nine that your opponents may play. Assuming they're not total maniacs, it's probably 98s, T9s, J9, A9, and possibly Q9, K9 and 97s depending on their tightness. The point is, they will not be holding 95, 94, 93, or 92. That means any card above six that comes on the turn, with the possible exception of a queen or king, is dangerous.

However, if the flop is 996, you are way ahead. Even if your opponent holds the other six, what is he likely to hold with it? The usual hands: 76s, 65s, and maybe 64s or 86s (he can't be holding pocket 6s, obviously). It's very unlikely he holds a higher kicker that could pair: T6, J6, Q6 etc are just not playable hands in limit unless you're a real maniac. The only possible threat is a pocket pair; if he holds 77 and the turn is a 7, he has sevens full of sixes beating your sixes full of nines. It can happen, but remember he's 23:1 against hitting that 7 on the turn, and you'll make him pay for it.

Flopped trips: again, you would prefer a flop of 662 to a flop of 99K. You hold one of the highest feasible kickers with trip sixes, but probably the lowest kicker for trip nines. With the second flop, you'll either win a small pot on the flop when people figure out you have trips, or lose a big one on the river when your opponent shows J9 (or worse, K9).

Open ended draw: this is usually what you're shooting for with suited two gappers. If the flop comes:

7 8 K

You're in position to call bets, or even raise depending on how many people are in the pot. Your hand is pretty well disguised; if the turn is a 5, most players won't really fear that you're holding the cinch hand.

If the T comes, there is a chance you lose to J9, but it's less likely J9 is calling bets here with just an inside straight draw and no overcards.

Double inside draw: If the flop comes all odds, like this:

3 5 7

Or all "evens" (counting queens as a 12):

8 T Q

You have a double inside draw. In the first case, you're more likely to make the nuts. If an 8 comes you're holding the absolute best hand (assuming there are not three suited cards on the board). If a 4 comes, it's likely you have the best hand since the only better one is 86.

Another subtle difference is that there's a small chance of winning the first flop just by hitting your weak over card. If there isn't much action and the turn is a 9, it's possible you have the best hand with just a pair of nines (perhaps your opponent has a smaller draw like 64, or pocket 8s).

If a nine comes on the second flop, it's bad news. You're drawing dead to any jack or anyone holding 76, and almost dead to anyone holding T9 or Q9. You're behind to anyone with a T or a Q. Even if the 7 comes it's still quite possible to lose this plot or split it several ways.

Inside straight draw: Worse than the double inside but still valuable is the inside straight draw. If the flop is:

5 7 T

It's usually worth calling one bet if you're getting at least 7:1. If the turn is an eight, you'll probably get plenty of action from second-best hands. There's a small chance of being outdrawn or splitting here, but I think it's worth chasing.

Most limit players don't read the board as well as they think, and someone holding AT or T8 may ram and jam on this one and lose big.

The other advantage of inside straight draws is there are not hard decisions. If you make your hand, bet it; if you don't, drop it immediately since you have nothing. This is easier with medium hands like 96s, since there's no way 9 high is the best hand; it gets trickier with KQs.

Flush draws: While the appeal of suited connectors is the possibility of a flush draw, you have to be careful. Suppose you limp, there is a raise behind you, and the flop comes:

A ♠ Q ♣ 2 ♣

If you're holding the 9 ♣ 6 ♣, this isn't a great situation for you. Although you have a four-flush, you have no other outs; you cannot make a straight, and a pair will likely do you no good. Even two pair might not be good. And there is the additional possibility that someone holds higher clubs.

Suppose the turn is:

5 ♣

You should certainly bet, but if you're raised it's a difficult situation. Clearly no one is raising with a straight; three-of-a-kind is possible.

But you can lose big if you cap the betting and the turn is:

T ♣

Your opponent turns over something like:

K ♣ Q ♦

And you lose a big pot.

You can get yourself into trouble when you are only ahead for one street. In this case, I was behind pre-flop (2 overcards to 2 undercards), behind on the flop (a pair of queens versus a flush draw), ahead on the turn (a pair and four-flush versus a made flush) and behind on the river (king high flush beats my queen high flush). A medium flush is very vulnerable to big-card hands like that, and your brief lead is not secure.

And I didn't forget: Of course, you can make a straight flush with 96s. If that happens, you don't need to worry about anything except trying to suck in players who are drawing dead.

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Back tomorrow to discuss a favorite "trouble hand," AJo.