Thursday, October 4, 2007

When to Bluff

There isn't much effective bluffing in the .25/.50 games I play. Heads up with minimum bets in the pot, it becomes more essential. I just checked in the blind with:

As 8d.

The flop came 2h - Td- 2d. Heads up, out of position, I'm betting or check-raising this hand most of the time. But this was four-handed; if I bet out, I'm getting called by any T, any 2, any two diamonds, and maybe even any ace. In other words, there is no possible worse hand that can call me, except maybe KQ.

I think the bet-out bluff is better than the check-raise. It's simply easier for the other player to lay down. There are 2 bets in the pot and he's getting 3:1 to call. If you check raise, there are 4 bets in and he's getting 5:1 to call. Then the bottom pair, or speculative hands, start getting calls. I don't want them to call, unless I'm value betting. If I'm value betting, I don't want to accidentally give a free card. Lederer overestimates the aggressiveness of opponents in limit games, and the frequency of heads up post-flop play. When you're three-way with top pair and a decent kicker, you're taking a huge chance checking on a dry board. They will almost surely pick up a draw

Remember, they want to call. Use it against them and bet. If you get the egotistic maniac who is guaranteed to bet, use that against him and check-raise regularly.

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